Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 1st - 5th Aug

Three red weekly candles out of 5 candles after dropping out of the rising wedge and is below mid BB. CL looking weak. The right shoulder seems to be forming. Since many traders have already seen this forming, it would be interesting if this would be a self-fulfilling prophecy and if MMs allow this to happen. We need more confirmation.

I suspect price to drop to the consolidation area and trade in a range below nearing the next OPEC meeting in 30th Nov. Price is now at the lower BB in the daily TF and may bounce up to mid BB. However, if sentiment continues to be bearish, price will continue south till the consolidation area and bounce up and down there. No hurry to buy or sell. Just intra-day trade would be better.

Daily support/resistance on 1st Aug: 41.29, 41.12
Weekly support/resistance from 1st- 5th Aug: 41.74, 42.47
Monthly support/resistance for Aug: 42.57, 44.96, 42.69, 45.3

Central Bank Calendar 2016

Below is the Central Bank Calendar for 2016. Watch out for these dates as these meetings could affect the interest rates.

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 1st - 5th Aug

NG had a big move after Thur bullish inventory report. it break out of the falling wedge in the 4hrs TF decisively. It almost reached the measured move target with possibilities to close the gap above. There is a shooting star and bearish engulfing pattern which should make bulls cautious of further up move without any correction.



In the 5hr TF, it can be seen that price has moved back up to the neckline of the H&S (again) and drop. It is not clear if this neckline will pose as resistance again. But price is above the ichimoku cloud which is bullish but the cloud is thin for next week. The support is weak should price move down to the cloud.

In the weekly chart, there are many lower shadows which are supportive of further up move. 2.75-2.7  may be the area to buy on dips if it ever corrects there.

In the monthly TF, BB is narrowing which means price will continue to trade in a range for a few more months. Upside seems limited in the next few months while downside has more meat if price ever drop below the mid of BB.

In the daily TF, a shooting star candle appears after breaking out of the falling wedge and need to be confirmed next week. Furthermore, price has touched the upper BB. New high may be possible and should there be any gap up above Friday's high, this would be seen as a nice shorting opportunity. Be cautious if price cannot hold below Friday high after the gap up. An example of price overshot the shooting star candle happened on 29th Jun after shortly, price begins to tumble.

Also to watch out is if there is the possibility of double top correction happening in the next couple of weeks.

Watch out for more clues on next Mon and Tues.

Currently, price is above the weekly and monthly support/resistance level which is seen to be bullish. Price need to break down these level and hold below to be considered for more bearish direction. The picture is mixed in different TF. We shall know more next week which highly expected bullish report will be reported next Thursday. Next week gona be exciting.

Daily support/resistance on 1st Aug: 2.874, 2.861
Weekly support/resistance from 1st- 5th Aug: 2.829, 2.778, 2.829, 2.778
Monthly support/resistance for Aug: 2.841, 2.812, 2.834, 2.791

Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 25th - 29th Jul

CL has clearly break below the rising wedge and there is a high chance it is trying to form the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder pattern. But it going to take time as it is at the support area of ichimoku cloud.

In the daily chart, CL is consolidating below the descending triangle. Could it be it is trying to going back to the descending triangle?

In the 1hr chart, there seems to be a falling wedge in formation. If true, price may go back to the descending triangle in the daily chart. We shall see next week how it turns out.

Daily support/resistance on 25th Jul: 44.36, 44.29

Weekly support/resistance for 25th - 29th Jul: 45.29. 44.60
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 48.75, 48.52, 48.62, 49.06

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 25th - 29th Jul

NG made a surprise 2 days rally on Thursday and Friday. Look like the 1 hour chart, it seems to break the upper resistance of the falling wedge.

Even in the daily chart, it breaks the falling wedge upper resistance. Target is around 2.95, with possibility to close the gap above. However, confirmation needed on Mon.

In the monthly chart, BB is narrowing meaning price is consolidating at a range. However price is still above mid of BB which mean uptrend may be intact. So it probably going to consolidate for the next few month before NG make a more directional move.

In the weekly chart, the candle pattern looks like bullish rising three methods. We will have confirmation next week.

As long as price is above the weekly support/resistance, price is going to bullish for next week. Even though NG is looking bullish right now, we still have to be cautious as next week is expiration week. (Option expiration next Tues and contract expiration next Wed) and NG always do what it wants and gives traders a surprise. There is still a possibility of price touching the monthly mid BB, so be cautious until we have more confirmation.

Daily support/resistance on 25th Jul: 2.763, 2.728
Weekly support/resistance from 25th - 29th Jul: 2.758, 2.712
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.848, 2.831, 2.675, 2.626

Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 18th - 22nd Jul

Crude continue to consolidate below the daily descending triangle, testing the base.

Price already breaks decisively below the weekly rising wedge with the mid of BB now acting as a support.

Price is consolidating at mid of monthly BB, while BB is squeezing. Price could be consolidating at a range for a month or a couple of months more before a directional move.

Daily support/resistance on 18th Jul: 46.08. 45.69

Weekly support/resistance for 18th - 22nd Jul: 46.8, 45.68, 46.45, 46.08
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 48.75, 48.52, 48.62, 49.06

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 18th - 22nd Jul

NG was trading at a range after a big drop on Mon, with 2.7 being the critical support and 2.8 being the critical resistance.

In the 1 hour chart, we can see a falling wedge forming , with the upper resistance trend line as the next destination (~2.8).

In the 5 hour, the H&S neckline is tested once. It may test it again at ~2.8. It would be interesting to see if the H&S pattern would bring price to around 2.5.

In the monthly chart, consolidation begins after it break through the mid of BB last month. Price might continue to consolidation for another month. (See my previous weekends post for more explanation)

In daily TF, price is consolidating below the mid of BB with Friday candle being almost a hammer. Is NG building base below mid of BB for up move or NG is building ceiling for more further down move? RSI is still above 50. We shall know next week, with option/contract expiry less than 2 weeks.

If the weekly support/resistance becomes a resistance, then expect more down move next week.

Daily support/resistance on 18th Jul: 2.724, 2.745
Weekly support/resistance from 18th - 22nd Jul: 2.77, 2.761
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.848, 2.831, 2.675, 2.626

Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 11th - 15th Jul

Crude oil finally is below the weekly rising wedge.

In the monthly TF, price is around the mid of BB. Bulls and bears need to watch for the next move, whether up or down. As mentioned previously, July would be tricky to trade.

In the daily TF, price breaks below the descending triangle with a spinning top. Bulls still have unfinished business I guess. Bears need to watch out until the downtrend is confirmed.

Daily support/resistance on 11th Jul: 45.20, 45.37

Weekly support/resistance for 11th - 15th Jull: 47.06, 45.77
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 48.75, 48.52, 48.62, 49.06

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 11th - 15th Jul

NG closed the gap below this week (see my previous weekends post on the trade plan) and may be consolidating at the monthly mid BB. It would be interesting to see if price dip near to the mid BB.

NG is trading the whole week within the body of last week trading range.

1 hr chart is interesting. On Friday, price had been pushed down during regular trading hours. I am not sure if MM is accumulating or trying to trap bulls. After settlement, price keeps raising. Would be interesting to see if this is the building of position for up move next week or a possible double top developing.

In daily chart, bulls are fighting hard to hold the price at mid of BB. Next week will have more answer to the direction I guess.

2.82 which is the weekly support/resistance should be interesting to watch. Either a resistance or support to trigger a clear direction next week.


Daily support/resistance on 11th Jul: 2.8068, 2.78650
Weekly support/resistance from 11th - 15th Jul: 2.818, 2.821
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.848, 2.831, 2.675, 2.626

Natural Gas trading 6th Jul

As mentioned in my weekends post, hold below 2.831 will open to weekly support/resistance 2.7 and then gap filled at 2.716/2.73 and consolidation may be coming between 2.7-2.831 unless hold above 2.831

Natural Gas trading - 5th Jul

If the head and shoulder is valid, then it will bounce from here to form the right shoulder. But if it is extremely bearish, it will just drop from here.

Intel moving into autonomous vehicles business - Bullish long term!

BMW, Intel and computer vision firm Mobileye have signed a deal to develop autonomous vehicles.The three firms will collaborate on the systems needed to make cars that can navigate without any help from a human driver.The vehicles will be capable of driving safely along major roads as well as in suburban and inner city areas.BMW said it hoped the collaboration would mean it could put robot cars into production by 2021.

Intel strategy to move away from PC to other growth areas like autonomous vehicles (this is the future, together with electric car!), cloud computing, data center and IOT should bear fruit soon. Long term target: $40-50 (The dividend payout is one of the best. What are you waiting for?)

Related Post:
Intel Technical Analysis Monthly View

Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 4th - 8th Jul

Crude oil is very tricky to trade now. The price is now around the lower support line of the rising wedge. If it gets inside, it could move up to the upper resistance line of the rising wedge.

After a beautiful shooting star/graveyard in the weekly chart, price is trading near to the shooting star candle level. To be bearish bias, I can view the current candle formation as shooting stars/graveyard and hanging man. To be bullish bias, I can view it as inverted hammer and hammer. Crude oil has been consolidating 6 weeks already. It would be interesting to watch if it will drop to form the right shoulder of the potential inverse head and shoulder from this level. Something to take note is there are 3 spinning tops at this level.

 On a monthly basis, June has a doji candle. Market is undecided. This could mean a continuation or a reversal. Need to be careful for July trading. It gona be tricky.

On a daily basis, crude oil seems to be consolidating in a descending triangle. Only time will tell.

The support/resistance level is very interesting for next week where the the daily/weekly/monthly price overlap with each other.

Daily support/resistance on 4th/5th Jul: 48.83, 48.6 

Weekly support/resistance for 4th-8th Jul: 48.83, 48.75
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 48.75, 48.52

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 4th - 8th Jul

Natural Gas is very bullish!! Based on monthly view, it has crossed the mid of BB. I looked left of the chart with 8 years horizon and found that there were 3 instances where price crossed the mid and price started to consolidate there before deciding on the direction. However, there were 1 instance where price simply does not consolidate at the mid. Big picture tells us NG is very bullish while BB is narrowing and this usually mean NG going to trade at a narrow range soon. (Please note NG sometimes does not respect technical analysis, so be cautious as anything could happen)

In the daily view, there are 2 gaps. One at 3.464, the other at 2.716. There is another at ~1.97 which I consider as a breakaway gap - I am too slow to recognize that! I am watching if the gap at 2.716 is a ruunaway gap or a common gap to be filled soon.

However, the gap is showing at 2.73 in TOS platform. So I will be watching of for 2.73 and 2.716 gap if it is going to fill there soon.

On a weekly basis, the candle is one of the longest green candles. Usually after a long candle, there could be profit taking but I will be watching out for bull euphoria to continue next week.

Daily support/resistance on 4th/5th Jul: 2.972, 2.945

Weekly support/resistance for 4th-8th Jul: 2.7, 2.679 
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.831, 2.626, 2.848, 2.675

There is a possibility that price could retrace to the monthly support/resistance at 2.831, holding below open the possibility to test the weekly support/resistance level, whereby consolidation could occur between 2.831 and 2.7.

Conclusion: I am open for a test of 2.831 as well as the bull euphoria to continue pushing price to the $3 range.

I will be very cautious going forward as NG has moved up too fast due to hot weather forecast without a nice correction. Could NG move up more? Yes it can, to close the gap above. I will be alert for the possibilities of closing the gap below as well and to wait for a nice correction to buy if there is any.

For the month of July, I will be watching for the resistance at the pink zone where cracking it open the possibility of touching the upper BB and closing the gap at 3.464. The yellow area shall be the area of support and I do think is a very strong support

As for gap up or gap down or flat on sun/mon opening? I do not know and do not want to speculate.

And Mon is US holiday and trading halt at 1300 EST.


Additional infor:
NG net position of managed money has been very bullish. Watching for the turn for signal of a correction.

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 4th - 8th Jul

Natural Gas is very bullish!! Based on monthly view, it has crossed the mid of BB. I looked left of the chart with 8 years horizon and found that there were 3 instances where price crossed the mid and price started to consolidate there before deciding on the direction. However, there were 1 instance where price simply does not consolidate at the mid. Big picture tells us NG is very bullish while BB is narrowing and this usually mean NG going to trade at a narrow range soon. (Please note NG sometimes does not respect technical analysis, so be cautious as anything could happen)

In the daily view, there are 2 gaps. One at 3.464, the other at 2.716. There is another at ~1.97 which I consider as a breakaway gap - I am too slow to recognize that! I am watching if the gap at 2.716 is a ruunaway gap or a common gap to be filled soon.

However, the gap is showing at 2.73 in TOS platform. So I will be watching of for 2.73 and 2.716 gap if it is going to fill there soon.

On a weekly basis, the candle is one of the longest green candles. Usually after a long candle, there could be profit taking but I will be watching out for bull euphoria to continue next week.

Daily support/resistance on 4th/5th Jul: 2.972, 2.945

Weekly support/resistance for 4th-8th Jul: 2.7, 2.679 
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.831, 2.626, 2.848, 2.675

There is a possibility that price could retrace to the monthly support/resistance at 2.831, holding below open the possibility to test the weekly support/resistance level, whereby consolidation could occur between 2.831 and 2.7.

Conclusion: I am open for a test of 2.831 as well as the bull euphoria to continue pushing price to the $3 range.

I will be very cautious going forward as NG has moved up too fast due to hot weather forecast without a nice correction. Could NG move up more? Yes it can, to close the gap above. I will be alert for the possibilities of closing the gap below as well and to wait for a nice correction to buy if there is any.

For the month of July, I will be watching for the resistance at the pink zone where cracking it open the possibility of touching the upper BB and closing the gap at 3.464. The yellow area shall be the area of support and I do think is a very strong support

As for gap up or gap down or flat on sun/mon opening? I do not know and do not want to speculate.

And Mon is US holiday and trading halt at 1300 EST.


Additional infor:
NG net position of managed money has been very bullish. Watching for the turn for signal of a correction.

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 4th - 8th Jul

Natural Gas is very bullish!! Based on monthly view, it has crossed the mid of BB. I looked left of the chart with 8 years horizon and found that there were 3 instances where price crossed the mid and price started to consolidate there before deciding on the direction. However, there were 1 instance where price simply does not consolidate at the mid. Big picture tells us NG is very bullish while BB is narrowing and this usually mean NG going to trade at a narrow range soon. (Please note NG sometimes does not respect technical analysis, so be cautious as anything could happen)

In the daily view, there are 2 gaps. One at 3.464, the other at 2.716. There is another at ~1.97 which I consider as a breakaway gap - I am too slow to recognize that! I am watching if the gap at 2.716 is a ruunaway gap or a common gap to be filled soon.

However, the gap is showing at 2.73 in TOS platform. So I will be watching of for 2.73 and 2.716 gap if it is going to fill there soon.

On a weekly basis, the candle is one of the longest green candles. Usually after a long candle, there could be profit taking but I will be watching out for bull euphoria to continue next week.

Daily support/resistance on 4th/5th Jul: 2.972, 2.945

Weekly support/resistance for 4th-8th Jul: 2.7, 2.679 
Monthly support/resistance for Jul: 2.831, 2.626, 2.848, 2.675

There is a possibility that price could retrace to the monthly support/resistance at 2.831, holding below open the possibility to test the weekly support/resistance level, whereby consolidation could occur between 2.831 and 2.7.

Conclusion: I am open for a test of 2.831 as well as the bull euphoria to continue pushing price to the $3 range.

I will be very cautious going forward as NG has moved up too fast due to hot weather forecast without a nice correction. Could NG move up more? Yes it can, to close the gap above. I will be alert for the possibilities of closing the gap below as well and to wait for a nice correction to buy if there is any.

For the month of July, I will be watching for the resistance at the pink zone where cracking it open the possibility of touching the upper BB and closing the gap at 3.464. The yellow area shall be the area of support and I do think is a very strong support

As for gap up or gap down or flat on sun/mon opening? I do not know and do not want to speculate.

And Mon is US holiday and trading halt at 1300 EST.


Additional infor:
NG net position of managed money has been very bullish. Watching for the turn for signal of a correction.