Will be back soon

I'm taking a few days break from updating the blog.

Crude Oil Trading for the week 27th Jun - 1st Jul (Weekend post)

Crude oil is still within the rising wedge in the weekly TF. More confirmation needed if it is going to 55 or breaking the lower support line to form the right shoulder below.

Daily support/resistance on 27th Jun: 48.58, 47.91

Weekly support/resistance for 27th Jun - 1st Jul: 48.62, 47.92
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62

Natural Gas Trading for the week 27th Jun - 1st Jul (Weekend post)

The weekly chart is showing a shooting start. Confirmation is needed if the short term trend is reversing.

4 hour chart is showing broadening top and within it, there is a symmetrical triangle. It could break up or break down.

I still see the correction to the down side coming based on chart patterns above. Down side target is around 2.45-2.5.

Daily support/resistance on 27th Jun: 2.667, 2.664 -> If these acts as resistance on Mon, chances is good that the price would break the symmetrical triangle.

Weekly support/resistance for 27th Jun - 1st Jul: 2.733, 2.712, 2.7, 2.679
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

International Healthway Corporation (IHC) Ltd Technical Analysis - Part 2

Just want to show the weekly chart that there seems to be a lot of accumulation in the yellow region within the consolidation triangle. Someone seems to be accumulating!

If there is no further extension to convening the AGM, it shall be held by 15 July 2016.

Related post: International Healthway Corporation (IHC) Ltd Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Trading - 24 Jun

Right now it drop to the weekly support/resistance range and bounce. Holding below today daily support/resistance would help bears.

From yesterday charting, nothing much has changed. The 4hr chart is showing broadening top of broadening top.

4 more days to contract expiry and 3 more days to option expiry!

Daily support/resistance on 24th Jun: 2.69, 2.667

Pivot: 2.685, 2.679

--> Holding below all above price would confirm the bearish trend for today.

Weekly support/resistance for 20th-24th Jun: 2.635, 2.596
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

Natural Gas Trading - 23 Jun

I have been observing this broadening top for many days. The big boys were try to scare as many bears as possible and provide false hope to the bulls by extending the rally.

Yesterday 1 hr chart already showing head and shoulder pattern. Once it reaches the neckline, all hell broke loose! And down it goes.

Daily candle already showing evening star. 

All the above is a good confirmation it is going down more. With contract expiry in 5 days, it is now obvious it is a bull exodus!

Fundamentally, the weather starting to cool a bit. This adds selling pressure too!

Patience bears would be rewarded, though timing is very very important! Do take note this is just a correction. I do think a retracement is needed for the bull trend to continue.

Today is inventory day. I do think it will be pump and dump if it is a neutral to slightly bullish report.

Daily support/resistance on 23rd Jun: 2.77, 2.703

Pivot: 2.7, 2.693

--> Holding below all above price would confirm the bearish trend for today.

Weekly support/resistance for 20th-24th Jun: 2.635, 2.596
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

Natural Gas trading - 22 Jun

Taking a break from NG chart analysis

Looking at the volume, Aug volume is only half of Jul volume. 6 more days to option expiry and 7 more days to contract expiry. Does that mean the bulls exodus is around the corner? Or half dead bears exodus around the corner?

Natural Gas Trading - 20 Jun

NG is marching towards the highly anticipated 2.7 by bulls! Looking at the 4 hr chart, there seems to be a broadening top forming. Close above the upper resistance line make this invalid!

Daily support/resistance on 20th Jun: 2.638, 2.605
Pivot: 2.629, 2.621

Weekly support/resistance for 20th-24th Jun: 2.635, 2.596
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

Option expiry in 7 days. Bulls exodus coming?

SMRT Corporation Ltd Technical Analysis

1. From the first chart, SMRT is currently consolidation at the yellow zone.
2. History has shown that the price bounced 4 times after consolidating at the yellow zone whereas price dropped 2 times after consolidating at the yellow zone. Thus, probability of bouncing up is higher.
3. There seems to be a double bottom (Adam and Adam) pattern in formation and the measured move is the green zone. 
4. The second chart shows a declining in volume, with price slopping upwards which is a good sign of pattern in formation.
5. I could only think of rail refinancing as the main catalyst for the breakout. In the long term, crude oil price shall remain low and this should be a supportive factor for price to move up as well. 
6. Patience investors would be rewarded

Tesla Motors Technical Analysis

There is likely a inverse head and shoulder forming. With Telsa model 3 electric car coming out soon, and Tesla trying to convince model 3 reservation holders to buy model S 60 instead, the demand for their car will only increase. Once the production for model 3 (for mass market) stabilize, we should see the stock price going up. $400 is the target.

I subscribe to the belief that electric car is the future. There are many positive development in this industry. Sooner than later, the urban road will be filled with many electric cars.

Natural Gas Trading: Weekends Post for the week 20th - 24th Jun

What a rally to end this week! The last few seconds before Friday closing spiked to new high!

The case to be bearish:
Based on daily TF, it has hit the upper channel again. The 7 daily candles have formed a resistance line. If it can't close above, I would deem it as bearish reversal sign.

Future more, as long as the daily candle did not touch the upper BB, I would see this as topping soon!

Weekly TF has shown after three long green candles, there is a bearish reversal. The current one has 4 green candles with this week as much smaller one. Based on candlesticks pattern, this is candle bearish deliberation pattern.

Example of successful bearish deliberation pattern can be shown in below charts.

The case to be bullish:
On the other hand, Friday candle has broken out of the consolidation within the 9th Jun candle, closing with new high. This could be deemed as bullish.

Verdict:
A trend with no retracement is not sustainable. The daily MACD seems to be about to go down and daily RSI is very overbought.Together with the candlestick pattern and trendline pattern, I remain a stubborn bear for a decent retracement but will be cautious for a spike to 2.7 before the anticipated retracement.

Daily support/resistance on 20th Jun: 2.638, 2.605

Weekly support/resistance for 20th-24th Jun: 2.635, 2.596
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

Crude Oil Trading: Weekends Post for the week 20th - 24th Jun

I mentioned that crude oil could easily form a weekly hanging man or pin bar candle this week. now the price is still within the rising wedge in the weekly TF. Daily candle is rather bullish. I see crude oil continue to march towards the upper resistance line of the rising wedge in the weeks to come if that pin bar has become a supportive candle.

Daily support/resistance on 20th Jun: 48.46, 47.65

Weekly support/resistance for 20th-24th Jun: 48.44, 47.6
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62

International Healthway Corporation (IHC) Ltd Technical Analysis

IHC seems to be consolidation in some sort of triangle. Measured move is around 0.118. There could be an island reversal once something positive pan out. This counter is really a long term hold if you have the patience. Once the hospitals are built and revenues start coming in, positive sentiment will be back.

China New Town Technical Analysis

You have to be patient with this counter. There have been a lot of positive development going on with this counter, though the fruit will be realized later. China new urbanization program is just beginning. Once it has gained strength, expect this counter to shoot up to the star.

Monthly chart is showing a clear triangle consolidation. It is at the end of the consolidation. It could take a few months to a year ++ for the break out to happen. The measured move is around 0.25.

In the daily chart, there is a gap below. I expect the gap to be filled first.

Ezra Technical Analysis Part 3

The price is still testing the symmetrical upper resistance line. There is still a possibility of closing the gap. As long as the price did not drop back inside or below the symmetrical triangle, something positive is cooking for a big bounce.

Related Post: Ezra Technical Analysis, Ezra Technical Analysis Part 2

Cosco Singapore Technical Analysis - Part 2

Cosco drop below 0.3 but recover back to 0.3. I see that it is still within the falling wedge. the yellow zone seem to be the buying zone. We will know in the next couple of weeks if the bounce will happen.

Related post: Cosco Singapore Technical Analysis

Trading lessons

I'm thinking about blogging a series of known trading concepts, methods and strategies. This helps to anchor what I have known and to find out what I'm not so sure or don't know. Stay tuned.

Natural Gas and Crude Oil trading update - 14th Jun, 15th Jun, 16th Jun, 17th Jun

Crude oil trading 13th- 17th Jun

Natural gas trading 13th - 17th Jun

Ezra technical analysis - part 2

As expected, it either continue to go up or test the symmetrical triangle upper resistance first. As long as it does not close below the triangle, the bounce is intact.

Related post: 

Ezra technical analysis

Ausgroup Ltd Technical Analysis

Ausgroup has reached all time low.

A falling wedge is seen in formation.
The red colour rectangle is the area of resistance.
Assuming the low is reached (hard to predict), the red colour area should be the area of magnet and it could be a resistance for weeks or months before price heading to the upper trend line of the falling wegde.

A downtrend channel is also seen in formation. If valid, price possibly going to try to test the upper trend line.

The measured move of the falling wedge is the yellow colour area. How soon and whether it could move there remains to be seen.

Please do note this analysis is for long term hold and assuming Asugroup does not fold up due to the oil and gas sector crisis, with positive development in the pipeline. (N.B: Fundamental aspect of Ausgroup is very bad at the moment. Trade at your own risk.)

Crude Oil Trading: 13th - 17th Jun

17th Jun

CL is capable of going back to the area enclosed in yellow. Too much doji there.

From weekly chart, hangman or pin bar cannot be rule out. some bullish news may be on its way later today.

Daily support/resistance: 46.27, 46.83
Pivot: 46.55

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


16th Jun

CL has dropped below the lower support line of the rising wedge. From first look, short looks tasty.

Probably not in the short term. There is a possibility of a head and shoulder formation. We shall see what pan out later.

Daily support/resistance: 47.66, 48
Pivot: 47.83

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


15th Jun

yesterday candle break the lower support line. it remains to be seen if MM will let it go down from here or it will retest the lower support line.

Weekly candle below showing graveyard last week. This week candle could easily become a hangman or pin bar depending what kind of game the MM wants to play. It is now at monthly support/resistance. If you are short, have some SL according to your risk appetite.

Daily support/resistance: 48.02, 48.27
Pivot: 48.14

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


14th Jun

I have adjusted the lower support line of the rising wedge slightly to fit in more accurately to the lower shadow end of the other 2 candlesticks. Looking at it, crude oil still dancing on the lower support line. Hard to be bias on long or short. Better to day trade and wait for more confirmation for swing trade.

Daily support/resistance: 48.61, 48.72
Pivot: 48.67

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62

Currently ~48.61 is acting as resistance. Hold above 48.61, consolidation between 48.61 - 48.72 could occur.

13th Jun

Crude oil bouncing from the lower support line, seems to be telling me "Not yet! My time is not up yet". If this is true, it is heading to 54-55! Today candle could give some hint.

Weekend Post
From daily chart, crude oil is likely to have bottom at around 26. After Russia and Venezuela started to intervene in oil price, the price has been going up, forming a rising wedge. If the rising wegde forms after an uptrend, it's usually a bearish reversal pattern. If a right shoulder of the I-H&S is in the formation, 40-36 could be the target and area of consolidation before going to test the neckline. It should take months for this pattern to be formed.

In the weekly chart, a graveyard candle can be seen. I see that this is good bearish signal for the coming weeks.


Below is the support/resistance to take note next week, Take note of 49.32 as it appears in this week support/resistance as well. As long as price is resisted at 49.18, 49.32 and 49.77, chances is good that it is going down soon. I think 49.32 is a critical area to watch out it if it go there.

Daily support/resistance for next Mon: 49.77, 49.18
Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


Check out the mid to long term view:
http://tachartreading.blogspot.com/2016/06/crude-oil-mid-to-long-term-tehcnical.html

Natural Gas Trading:13th - 17th Jun

17th Jun

The BB at 4hr is still narrowing. The ichimoku cloud below seems to provide some kind of support. It has broken down some sort of rising wedge. I still think it could go to the lower channel line at around 2.4 but since the price is still above the ichimoku cloud, providing some support, it is going to take some time.

Looking at the daily candles, there is nothing but dojis, shooting stars, hanging man, graveyard within the large green candle on 9th of June. I still think the first stop is at the mid band. Whether it fill the gap is something to ponder and watch out for.

This week candle will be spinning top or dark cloud? Hmmm....

Daily support/resistance: 2.586, 2.596
Pivot: 2.591, 2.59

Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204



16th Jun

The 4hr TF BB still in a narrow range and I see it starts to drop below the mid band. I expect inventory to give a decisive direction, with BB band expansion. And I am anticipating  a downwards correction. I am bearish at the moment.

Daily support/resistance: 2.6, 2.61
Pivot: 2.601, 2.604

Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

745am EST

Yesterday when NG tried to rally, it hits a resistance at around 2.63 and then reverse which a nice bearish engulfing in the 4hr TF. Right now, we have a nice red candle. As long as the current candle does not close with a bullish engulfing, ~2.4 is highly possible.

If the downtrend continues after inventory report, I am anticipating it to hit the lower channel line. The mid of BB in the daily chart should coincide with the lower channel line to form some support there (~2.4 and slightly below) either this week or next week. If I did not read wrongly, MM has been spending so much time (~4-5 days) trying to distribute to retail bulls thinking summer rally will continue forever. Let's see if I'm right.

1035am EST

Inventory is slightly bearish.Correction to 2.4 should be on its way. I mentioned MM has been distributing for the past few days.

I was saying spike and dump after report. I think many are betting for it to rally after report and have a buy stop to ride on it. I guess MM simply just trigger their buy order and then dump. The domino effect will take place soon.


11.10am EST

Damn! it is going up after the dump. I think once those trapped during that spike after report escaped, NG should start dropping.

1:19PM EST

Now in symmetrical triangle consolidation. I am still bearish bias.

2:08PM EST

Muahahaha

15th Jun

Looking at the BB band squeezing at different TF, an explosive move is going to happen soon. I will update more later.

8am EST

NG getting harder to trade. BB is squeezing. Big move should be coming pretty soon, probably on inventory day The pattern looks like triple top or inverse head and shoulder. Need to wait for more clues. 2.7-2.8 or 2.5-2.4 first?

Monthly candle still stuck at the mid of bollinger band. Would you short if you see this?

Daily support/resistance: 2.595, 2.578
Today's pivot: 2.593, 2.587

Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

10 am EST

Possible rising wedge in 4 hr TF? Shorting opportunity?

1237 PM EST

Bearish engulfing spotted in 4hr TF. Need to maintain for the next 20 min. Now is dancing at the 2.595 and pivot . Hold below would be good for bears.

14th Jun

Daily support/resistance: 2.589, 2.603
Today's pivot: 2.596, 2.589

Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204

Strong resistance at 2.589. Holding above, bears need to be cautious. Holding below should boost bears' confidence.

Look at the charts. Nothing but graveyards and dojis! I saw it yesterday and am rather confident bulls are exhausted. ~ 2.5 first target. ~ 2.4 second target.

10:40am EST

Ascending triangle consolidation!!

13th Jun

Currently NG rally to 2.635 new high. If it cannot go up anymore, it would be bearish in the coming days unless it go up to around 2.666. It need to touch the upper BB in the 4hr TF before I am convince the rally will continue. 2.58, 2.579 and 2.577 could be seen soon if rally halted after US open.

Below is this week support/resistance level to take note.

Daily support/resistance for  Mon: 2.58, 2.577
Today's pivot: 2.579

Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204


11.28am EST update:
Currently in a symmetrical triangle consolidation. Which way will it go?

12.30PM EST update:

Breaking down the symmetrical triangle! Let's see if it holds and close the gap below! :)

2.06PM EST:

Muahaha.. Finally and gap closed!

Weekend post
NG has hit the upper channel of the up trend channel after reversing back inside.This could be the area where traders start to take profit. Due to how BB has expanded, bears need to be cautious as it could spike one more time before a meaningful correction happen.

In 4hr TF, a graveyard candle appears after it overshoot the upper channel. This often mean the price is going to be bearish. Need to watch if price will start to drop.

The monthly chart shows that it is being resisted by the mid band of BB. Holding below could see a correction coming.

PPS indicator in the 4hr TF is showing bearish signal. I expect it to retrace back to the mid band first.

The hype now is summer is going to be hot. Fundamental stories are mix though. On one hand, supply is plentiful while hot summer weather, if it is coming, is going to consumer NG a lot.

Below is next week support/resistance level to take note.

Daily support/resistance for next Mon: 2.58, 2.577
Weekly support/resistance for next week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204