17th Jun
The BB at 4hr is still narrowing. The ichimoku cloud below seems to provide some kind of support. It has broken down some sort of rising wedge. I still think it could go to the lower channel line at around 2.4 but since the price is still above the ichimoku cloud, providing some support, it is going to take some time.
Looking at the daily candles, there is nothing but dojis, shooting stars, hanging man, graveyard within the large green candle on 9th of June. I still think the first stop is at the mid band. Whether it fill the gap is something to ponder and watch out for.
This week candle will be spinning top or dark cloud? Hmmm....
Daily support/resistance: 2.586, 2.596
Pivot: 2.591, 2.59
Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
16th Jun
The 4hr TF BB still in a narrow range and I see it starts to drop below the mid band. I expect inventory to give a decisive direction, with BB band expansion. And I am anticipating a downwards correction. I am bearish at the moment.
Daily support/resistance: 2.6, 2.61
Pivot: 2.601, 2.604
Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
745am EST
Yesterday when NG tried to rally, it hits a resistance at around 2.63 and then reverse which a nice bearish engulfing in the 4hr TF. Right now, we have a nice red candle. As long as the current candle does not close with a bullish engulfing, ~2.4 is highly possible.
If the downtrend continues after inventory report, I am anticipating it to hit the lower channel line. The mid of BB in the daily chart should coincide with the lower channel line to form some support there (~2.4 and slightly below) either this week or next week. If I did not read wrongly, MM has been spending so much time (~4-5 days) trying to distribute to retail bulls thinking summer rally will continue forever. Let's see if I'm right.
1035am EST
Inventory is slightly bearish.Correction to 2.4 should be on its way. I mentioned MM has been distributing for the past few days.
I was saying spike and dump after report. I think many are betting for it to rally after report and have a buy stop to ride on it. I guess MM simply just trigger their buy order and then dump. The domino effect will take place soon.
11.10am EST
Damn! it is going up after the dump. I think once those trapped during that spike after report escaped, NG should start dropping.
1:19PM EST
Now in symmetrical triangle consolidation. I am still bearish bias.
2:08PM EST
Muahahaha
15th Jun
Looking at the BB band squeezing at different TF, an explosive move is going to happen soon. I will update more later.
8am EST
NG getting harder to trade. BB is squeezing. Big move should be coming pretty soon, probably on inventory day The pattern looks like triple top or inverse head and shoulder. Need to wait for more clues. 2.7-2.8 or 2.5-2.4 first?
Monthly candle still stuck at the mid of bollinger band. Would you short if you see this?
Daily support/resistance: 2.595, 2.578
Today's pivot: 2.593, 2.587
Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
10 am EST
Possible rising wedge in 4 hr TF? Shorting opportunity?
1237 PM EST
Bearish engulfing spotted in 4hr TF. Need to maintain for the next 20 min. Now is dancing at the 2.595 and pivot . Hold below would be good for bears.
14th Jun
Daily support/resistance:
2.589, 2.603
Today's pivot: 2.596,
2.589
Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
Strong resistance at 2.589. Holding above, bears need to be cautious. Holding below should boost bears' confidence.
Look at the charts. Nothing but graveyards and dojis! I saw it yesterday and am rather confident bulls are exhausted. ~ 2.5 first target. ~ 2.4 second target.
10:40am EST
Ascending triangle consolidation!!
13th Jun
Currently NG rally to 2.635 new high. If it cannot go up anymore, it would be bearish in the coming days unless it go up to around 2.666. It need to touch the upper BB in the 4hr TF before I am convince the rally will continue. 2.58, 2.579 and 2.577 could be seen soon if rally halted after US open.
Below is this week support/resistance level to take note.
Daily support/resistance for Mon: 2.58, 2.577
Today's pivot: 2.579
Weekly support/resistance for this week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
11.28am EST update:
Currently in a symmetrical triangle consolidation. Which way will it go?
12.30PM EST update:
Breaking down the symmetrical triangle! Let's see if it holds and close the gap below! :)
2.06PM EST:
Muahaha.. Finally and gap closed!
Weekend post
NG has hit the upper channel of the up trend channel after reversing back inside.This could be the area where traders start to take profit. Due to how BB has expanded, bears need to be cautious as it could spike one more time before a meaningful correction happen.
In 4hr TF, a graveyard candle appears after it overshoot the upper channel. This often mean the price is going to be bearish. Need to watch if price will start to drop.
The monthly chart shows that it is being resisted by the mid band of BB. Holding below could see a correction coming.
PPS indicator in the 4hr TF is showing bearish signal. I expect it to retrace back to the mid band first.
The hype now is summer is going to be hot. Fundamental stories are mix though. On one hand, supply is plentiful while hot summer weather, if it is coming, is going to consumer NG a lot.
Below is next week support/resistance level to take note.
Daily support/resistance for next Mon: 2.58, 2.577
Weekly support/resistance for next week: 2.556, 2.515
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 2.235, 2.26, 2.128, 2.204
