Saturday, June 11, 2016

Crude Oil Trading: 13th - 17th Jun

17th Jun

CL is capable of going back to the area enclosed in yellow. Too much doji there.


From weekly chart, hangman or pin bar cannot be rule out. some bullish news may be on its way later today.


Daily support/resistance: 46.27, 46.83
Pivot: 46.55

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


16th Jun

CL has dropped below the lower support line of the rising wedge. From first look, short looks tasty.

Probably not in the short term. There is a possibility of a head and shoulder formation. We shall see what pan out later.


Daily support/resistance: 47.66, 48
Pivot: 47.83

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


15th Jun

yesterday candle break the lower support line. it remains to be seen if MM will let it go down from here or it will retest the lower support line.


Weekly candle below showing graveyard last week. This week candle could easily become a hangman or pin bar depending what kind of game the MM wants to play. It is now at monthly support/resistance. If you are short, have some SL according to your risk appetite.



Daily support/resistance: 48.02, 48.27
Pivot: 48.14

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


14th Jun

I have adjusted the lower support line of the rising wedge slightly to fit in more accurately to the lower shadow end of the other 2 candlesticks. Looking at it, crude oil still dancing on the lower support line. Hard to be bias on long or short. Better to day trade and wait for more confirmation for swing trade.



Daily support/resistance: 48.61, 48.72
Pivot: 48.67

Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62

Currently ~48.61 is acting as resistance. Hold above 48.61, consolidation between 48.61 - 48.72 could occur.

13th Jun

Crude oil bouncing from the lower support line, seems to be telling me "Not yet! My time is not up yet". If this is true, it is heading to 54-55! Today candle could give some hint.



Weekend Post
From daily chart, crude oil is likely to have bottom at around 26. After Russia and Venezuela started to intervene in oil price, the price has been going up, forming a rising wedge. If the rising wegde forms after an uptrend, it's usually a bearish reversal pattern. If a right shoulder of the I-H&S is in the formation, 40-36 could be the target and area of consolidation before going to test the neckline. It should take months for this pattern to be formed.


In the weekly chart, a graveyard candle can be seen. I see that this is good bearish signal for the coming weeks.


Below is the support/resistance to take note next week, Take note of 49.32 as it appears in this week support/resistance as well. As long as price is resisted at 49.18, 49.32 and 49.77, chances is good that it is going down soon. I think 49.32 is a critical area to watch out it if it go there.

Daily support/resistance for next Mon: 49.77, 49.18
Weekly support/resistance for next week: 50.19, 49.32
Monthly support/resistance for Jun: 48.2, 48.09, 46.93, 46.62


Check out the mid to long term view:
http://tachartreading.blogspot.com/2016/06/crude-oil-mid-to-long-term-tehcnical.html

1 comment:

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